[IIOE2-EP43] NEW NORMAL - NEar surface Warming in the Northern Indian Ocean and Rainfall Monsoon Anomaly Linkages

Lead Investigator :

  1. Alejandra Sanchez-Franks, National Oceanography Centre, SO14 3ZH, United Kingdom

Other Key participants (s):

  1. Sinha Bablu, National Oceanography Centre, United Kingdom
  2. Mathew Koll Roxy, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, India
  3. Ashis Kumar Mitra, The National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, India
  4. Andrew Turner,University of Reading, United Kingdom

Period of Project: 01 November, 2021 - 01 November, 2023

Brief description of the Project:

The South Asian monsoon impacts about a third of the world's population. In the past decades, extremes in monsoon rainfall are found to be increasing and have been linked to Indian Ocean warming. The Bay of Bengal sea surface temperature (SST) is a known key driver of the South Asian monsoon system. What we don't know is how the Bay of Bengal SST is affected by the Indian Ocean warming and how the Bay of Bengal feeds back/leads to extremes in monsoon rainfall. This project will capitalise on data and results from the international Indian Ocean programmes (e.g. IIOE-2, IndOOS-2, BoBBLE, STIMULATE), the latest operational seasonal to decadal forecast models from the UK Met Office and collaborating partners, and new high resolution climate projections from the UK and EU ACSIS and PRIMAVERA programmes, and bring together new international collaborations to address the shifting/changing role of Bay of Bengal SST running up to and during extreme climate events. In doing so, this project will complete the steps needed to understand and eventually predict extremes in monsoon rainfall.

Region of study:

The tropical upper Indian Ocean. The Bay of Bengal.