- Dona Paula, Goa, India.
- +91-0832- 2450327
- iiosc2020[at]nio[dot]org
| Abstract Submission No. | ABS-2022-06-0087 |
| Title of Abstract | Next steps in modeling climate and marine ecosystem variability on sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) time scales |
| Authors | Dr. Cisco Werner*, Craig McLean* |
| Organisation | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) |
| Address | 1315 East-West Hwy Silver Spring, MD, United States Pincode: 20910 Mobile: 3014278107 E-mail: edward.gorecki@noaa.gov |
| Country | United States |
| Presentation | Oral |
| Abstract | Variability in climate signals and its effect on marine ecosystems has accelerated significantly in the past decade. Examples include extreme events, such as marine heat waves ⿿ that can range in time scales ranging from weeks to multiannual ⿿ and are occurring more frequently and in all oceans. Such events are causing shifts in species⿿ abundance and distribution, changes in biodiversity, emergence of harmful algal blooms, etc. The ability to anticipate such ecosystem-level impacts would allow for management actions to be put into place, thereby minimizing negative effects on human communities that depend on the health of our marine resources. We will focus our discussion on efforts predicting the occurrence of events on the 3-month to 3-year time scales, which we refer to as subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) time scales. Developing an S2S predictive capability would allow us to anticipate and plan for scenarios that would minimize social and economic impacts that could result from prolonged fisheries closures. We will review ongoing efforts within U.S. NOAA, and we will also outline possible areas of collaboration with India that would accelerate our joint quantitative understanding and predictive capabilities of phenomena on S2S time scales. We will close with ideas for next steps in joint US-India research within the broader theme of Earth System Modeling, and in support of the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development goals. |