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Abstract Submission No. | ABS-2022-10-0221 |
Title of Abstract | The Indian summer monsoon variability during mid-Pliocene |
Authors | Karishma Dahiya*, Nagaraju Chilukoti |
Organisation | National Institute of Technology, Rourkela |
Address | CVR Hall of Residence, NIT Rourkela Rourkela, Odisha, India Pincode: 769008 Mobile: 9891870221 E-mail: 520ER1002@nitrkl.ac.in |
Country | India |
Presentation | Oral |
Abstract | The Indian subcontinent experiences 80% of its annual rainfall during the summer monsoon season (June to September). Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) seems to be regular as it occurs every year but its intensity, distribution and onset and retrieval time could vary considerably that causes heavy floods and droughts. Since the Indian economy is highly dependent on summer monsoon rains, accurate and timely prediction of it is necessary. Understanding the present and past climate variability is important for the improvement of ISMR predictions. The present General Circulation Models (GCMs) has satisfactory skill in predicting the ISMR in seasonal scale, however systematic biases also exist in the mean state of ISMR. Many climate model future projections are showing large spread in ISMR variability. It is not clear, the variability of ISMR in the warming climate especially by end of this century how it will change. In this study, we aim to understand the behaviour of ISMR variability in warming climate due to increase in Greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. To elucidate the ISMR variability in warming climate, we have chosen a mid-Pliocene period when the GHG concentrations are nearly equal to the end of the century. We have selected five climate models for mid-Pliocene simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) and compared with current ISMR variability and its teleconnections with tropical climate drivers. Three out of five models shown increase in the mean rainfall over India except over North Western region and other two models shown decrease in the mean rainfall over India except North East region during mid-Pliocene when compared to the current ISMR mean values. During mid-Pliocene all models predicted the increase in rainfall over North East and along the foothills of Himalaya. The ISMR- El NiƱo Southern Oscillation (ENSO) relation is strengthen during mid-Pliocene over India except few pockets (Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh) when compared to the current ISMR-ENSO strength. Increase in the mean rainfall quantity may be attributed to increase in Sea Surface Temperature (SST) which favoured the evaporation and increased convective activity over India. |