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| Abstract Submission No. | ABS-2022-14-0249 |
| Title of Abstract | Impact of ocean warming in the genesis and rapid intensification of extremely severe cyclone ⿿Tauktae⿿ |
| Authors | ATHIRA P RATNAKARAN*, ABISH B |
| Organisation | KERALA UNIVERSITY OF FISHERIES AND OCEAN STUDIES |
| Address | krishnakripa, kallikkunnuparambil Medical College, Kozhikode KOZHIKODE, KERALA, India Pincode: 673008 Mobile: 8086640154 E-mail: athiathi26nov@gmail.com |
| Country | India |
| Presentation | Poster |
| Abstract | Recent years shows an increase in the number and intensity of tropical cyclones over the Arabian Sea basin during the pre-monsoon season. This is evident from the extremely severe cyclonic storm ⿿Tauktae⿿, which occurred over the Arabian Sea on May 2021. It was the strongest pre-monsoon cyclone which occurred in the Arabian Sea after Kandla in 1998. It turned in to an extremely severe cyclonic storm undergoing rapid intensification under favorable ocean-atmospheric conditions. Earlier Arabian sea was less vulnerable to tropical cyclones when compared to Bay of Bengal, recent studies indicate an increase in the tropical cyclone occurrence over the Arabian sea basin. The current study is an effort to understand the ocean-atmospheric conditions favorable for the genesis and intensification of Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm ⿿Tauktae⿿. Our analysis show that along with the conductive atmospheric conditions, warm ocean conditions led to the genesis and intensification of cyclone ⿿Tauktae⿿. The accumulated cyclone energy calculated for the cyclone Tauktae is around 7.2 (104 kt2) which is very much higher when compared to the climatological cyclone records. Also, the SST anomaly observed in the pre-monsoon season over the Arabian Sea basin rise above 0.8-1.2oC over the east central Arabian Sea region. High Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential of around 120-140 KJ/cm2 was found over the south east and east central Arabian Sea when compared to the northern Arabian Sea during the formation of cyclone. Rise in SST and TCHP can cause high Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) in the east AS during pre-monsoon and enhance cyclogenesis and intensification. Ocean Heat Content seasonal anomaly (D700) over the Indian Ocean when observed over a period of 66 years (1955-2021) shows large scale variability. Recent Ocean heat content anomaly over the Indian Ocean is around 3.5 x 10 22 J respectively, with a gradual rise from 2003-2016. High Sea Surface Temperature and Ocean Heat Content creates warm ocean conditions and provide continuous energy in the form of sensible and latent flux from the upper ocean surface to the atmosphere. Warmer atmosphere could hold more moisture and can have potential effect on cyclogenesis and intensification. As the Indian Ocean continues to warm, it is inevitable to understand its effect on tropical cyclone genesis and intensification which can open the way to mitigate the catastrophic effect of changing weather over India. |